El Niño is becoming a more prevalent issue every day, and could affect the weather in the coming months more than it ever has on record. The rest of the year is expected to be full of unusual weather conditions, starting with what has already been the warmest June on record since 1940. This weather phenomenon is set to affect the Bay Area in many ways, and the students and staff of Oakland Tech have voiced concerns for the future.
“Becoming educated, aware, and advocating for your communities is very crucial at this time,”
stated Environmental Science teacher Mr. Joseph Senn.
To understand El Niño’s effects, it is important to first understand what it is. El Niño is a patch of warm water near the equator, in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. When this stretch of water reaches over 0.9 Fahrenheit, it has enough energy to impact weather all around the world. This year the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting an 81% chance that this patch will exceed 3.6° Fahrenheit above average during October, November, and December.
This winter is expected to be a wet one, with incoming rain storms and atmospheric rivers. Additionally, it will deeply affect marine life. While El Niño is not the marine heatwave seen in the news, it could cause harmful algae blooms, which can poison seabirds or marine mammals, and make crab and shellfish toxic to eat.
While it might seem like El Niño came out of nowhere, it is really a warm phase of the weather cycle, and occurs every two to five years. However, this year the Climate Prediction Center is predicting a 69% chance that this will be the strongest El Niño since 1950.
Future Bay Area weather could be unpredictable. However, there is a high fire risk forecasted from the thunder and lighting from storms, as well as an increased strain on the marine heatwave, and possibly less fog covering the bay. This is because the fog is created when the warm air moves over the cold ocean, and when El Niño warms the water, the fog disappears.
Scientists are also forecasting more warm rain in the winter and spring, meaning it is unlikely to be a very snowy winter up in the mountains.
“The number one damage to infrastructure in the U.S. is localized floods.” says Mr. Senn, “They cause more harm than any other disaster.”
Risks of flooding are dangerous for everyone, especially those without much access to good housing.
“I’m worried how extreme weather conditions could affect people living here,” says Mr. Sa’adia Massarano, another Environmental Science teacher, “Especially people who are unhoused, or in buildings at risk of damage.”
While scientists believe this is the most likely outcome of El Niño, “I think it’s good to be ready for anything.” says Mr. Massarano.
Higher sea levels caused by El Niño have led to larger king tides, more coastal flooding, and Lake Merritt rising about one to two feet. Lake Merritt water levels rise when the water in the Bay rises and tidal water can flow through the channel into the lake.
Scientists found that the 2015–2016 El Niño erased about 150 feet of California beaches. It is predicted that this year’s El Niño might have the same consequences.
El Niño is bringing unpredictable forecasts, and putting people at risk all over the country. Oakland too, should begin to prepare for what is to come.